While many regimes may continue to target seemingly bigger issues throughout 2020, this may leave them under prepared for the driving undercurrents of the Middle Eastern street, and the following is recommended for deeper insight into the nuanced perspectives one should have about the coming changes: Asia has slipped somewhat from global focus in 2019, yet the situation remains as volatile as it did in 2018, as tensions between the United States and China have simmered on and President Trump’s unpredictable foreign policy course has placed economic relations in the region on a knife edge. Arundel House. This and other information can be found in the Funds' prospectuses or, if available, the summary prospectuses, which may be obtained by visiting the iShares Fund and BlackRock Fund prospectus pages. 2020 geopolitical calendar Whether the withdrawal will be turned around with a tweet, or if there is a sizeable shift after a change in President remains to be seen. For better understanding of the issue, the following are well worth reading: Despite celebrating its 70th anniversary this year, the People’s Republic of China has been dealing with its fair share of problems, none of which seem likely to disappear in 2020. In 2020, the U.S. Presidential election will be mired in innuendo and false narratives … Understanding the extent and influence of Islamism across the region will be important for understanding the geopolitics of Southeast Asia in 2020: In South Asia, due to Pakistan and India’s prevailing friction, and the ever-rising Chinese superpower across India’s Himalayan frontier, India this year began putting more resources into the the BIMSTEC (Bangladesh, India, Myanmar, Sri Lanka, Thailand , Nepal and Bhutan) organisation, of which Pakistan is not a member. Not my first time recommending Stavridis for the end-of-year reading list from possibly the most published Admiral; this work of the former NATO Supreme Allied Commander and Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy Dean is an update on the seminal Influence of Seapower Upon History by Alfred Thayer Mahan. This book is recommended reading for anyone wanting to understand how terrorists think and act or how America hunts those terrorists down. From the stalled-but-ever-bloody war in Yemen to counter Iran-backed Houthi rebels, to their efforts to expand a presence across the Horn of Africa while building up their own military capabilities, the wealthy Gulf States appear to be scrambling to cement their own power in their near abroad. Online (GMT) 20th November 2020. Post was not sent - check your email addresses! What to watch in geopolitics in 2020. He is seen as a legend and mentor amongst the US Military’s officer and enlisted ranks, and as such this is required reading for all seeking to understand the mindset of the US war-fighting machine. Encyclopedia Geopolitica is a collaborative effort to bring you thoughtful insights on world affairs. Cocktails from Hell is a tour de force that examines five of the wars which will be most influential globally, and the smorgasbord of actors and factors coming together which make them so complex. It is an unfortunate reality that most foreign viewpoints about India and its community are dominated by the social evil of the caste system. The post-Brexit foreign policy course of the United Kingdom is also worth closely monitoring within this context as Britain seeks to expand on the “Special Relationship”, and as such the following are worth reading: Disintegrative tendencies have continued to be a common theme across Europe in recent years, from the recently-renewed unrest around the Catalonian independence movement in Spain, and increased calls for a second independence referendum in Scotland emerging from the Brexit debate. Charlie Song – Espionage and Global Security Analyst, Sua Sponte: The Forging of a Modern American Ranger (Dick Couch). Asia-Pacific: Indonesia’s Confederation of Indonesian Trade Unions (KSPI) has extended its protest campaign, hoping to see the overturn of recent labor reforms. While these divides will be largely domestic in nature, their impact will be felt around the world. Understanding the region’s precarious and often ageing monarchies will continue to prove vital in 2020, with several possible opportunities for royal successions throughout the region. The book is a journey through the history of terrorism and its antagonistic relationship with the state, introducing the reader to the Ghosts of Terrorism Past, Present, and Future; exploring the complex interactions between terrorism, strategy, and law, and challenging great tracts of conventional wisdom along the way. Leaders across the continent of South America, however, will no doubt have found it more chilling. Show Events Search Events Search. Along its path, it provides provocative insights into the fears of would-be suicide bombers, and presents an ambitious thesis about their importance in modern history. This book discusses Central Asia not as a realm separate from the globalisation and progress of the 21st century, but as one where globalisation has planted its flag most strongly, and is beginning to antagonise the latent forces of radical Islam. Meanwhile, environmental concerns appear to be reaching a breaking point, with massive eco-protests taking place across the continent. With a full year of geopolitical events slated for 2020, consider watching ETF activity to provide insight into market sentiment. The strategies discussed are strictly for illustrative and educational purposes and are not a recommendation, offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities or to adopt any investment strategy. In 2019, business losses due to political risk were higher than ever. Encyclopedia Geopolitica readers have access to a 30-day free trial for Kindle Unlimited, allowing them to sample over 1 million ebooks and thousands of audiobooks. Geopolitical Outlook -- 2019-2020 September 30, 2019 The United States Intelligence Community is responsible not only for monitoring current events, but also assessing the future strategic environment, looking around the turns and bends in international relations to see what might be coming in … Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides’ Trap? Central Asia remains a mysterious region to many Western observers, where clan loyalties matter more than national ones, and where despots and technocrats have made entire nations into their fiefdoms. In Mozambique, Ansar al Sunnah continue to gradually increase the frequency of attacks against civilians and security forces in the North. Across Central & South Asia and Africa, Chinese infrastructure projects continue to develop while little by little, small contingents of Chinese security forces are deployed in force-protection roles, garnering much suspicion along the way. Any readers wishing to develop their own understanding of why President Putin acts as he does and the effect of Russia’s historic and geographic legacy will enjoy Giles’ insights. BLACKROCK, BLACKROCK SOLUTIONS, BUILD ON BLACKROCK, ALADDIN, iSHARES, iBONDS, FACTORSELECT, iTHINKING, iSHARES CONNECT, FUND FRENZY, LIFEPATH, SO WHAT DO I DO WITH MY MONEY, INVESTING FOR A NEW WORLD, BUILT FOR THESE TIMES, the iShares Core Graphic, CoRI and the CoRI logo are trademarks of BlackRock, Inc., or its subsidiaries in the United States and elsewhere. The biggest story in South Asia for 2019 has been Kashmir, which has seen an abrupt change in the status quo, with far reaching implications. As a renowned scholar in the inter-related fields of law, strategy, and history, Bobbitt’s Terror and Consent is absolutely indispensable in getting to grips with the changing world in which we live at the grand strategic level. This situation has been complicated by the Turkish incursion. Increasingly, investors are also using ETF options - both to express views and gauge market sentiment ahead of and during political events. Copies of this document may be obtained from your broker, from any exchange on which options are traded or by contacting The Options Clearing Corporation, One North Wacker Dr., Suite 500, Chicago, IL 60606 (1-888-678-4667). France’s Gilets Jaunes movement have paralysed much of the country on a regular basis, drawing extensive tax concessions and tempering reformist President Emmanuel Macron’s plan to radically reshape the French economy. Prime Minister Mahdi who has agreed to resign as soon as a successor is agreed in order to avoid a political vacuum, has felt the brunt of popular dissatisfaction having failed to solve problems of youth unemployment, corruption, and broken infrastructure. The reduction of forces in Syria, with a more-than-offsetting deployment to Saudi Arabia, is a shift in priority that both makes it easier to slip into a war with Iran via their proxies in Yemen and regular forces in the Gulf, and allows Iran a greater level of influence amongst the pro-Assad forces in Syria. We detail the key geopolitical events for the rest of the year in the table below. Disinformation. Neighbouring Mali and the wider Sahel have become of increasing importance to French and U.S. counterterrorism missions as a result of the extremism and exploitation that has taken root in the region’s sovereignty vacuum. Nov. 10, 2020 . Increasingly, investors are also using ETF options - both to express views and gauge market sentiment ahead of and during political events. Keir Giles, senior expert on Russia at Chatham House, sets the landscape for this better grasp with his description of Russian political strategy and doctrine. Whilst the reader may take the life lessons to heart and attempt to apply them, the real value is reading the first-hand account of some of the most daring and inventive instances in the early GWOT era. Turkey – Kurdish Regional Government Relations After the U.S. Withdrawal from Iraq: Putting the Kurds on the Map? As a CIA targeting officer, Nada Bakos was one of the people tasked with hunting down the fearsome Abu Musab al Zarqawi, the leader of al Qaeda in Iraq, the group which eventually became Islamic State. These risks often are heightened for investments in emerging/ developing markets or in concentrations of single countries. It is an excellent primer on the complex subject of foreign affairs, though it does focus more on the present and less on the past. As a result, its geopolitical shifts in the year to come will not go unnoticed. : 6 August: Egypt and Greece sign a maritime boundary treaty, establishing exclusive … The Great Decoupling. An understanding of the foundations of this relationship is essential for those wishing to navigate the continuing impact of the rift in 2019. © 2020 BlackRock, Inc. All rights reserved. Nonetheless, the book will hopefully inspire more insights from scholars in the developing world. Sir Lawrence Freedman, Emeritus Professor at King’s College London, provides the authoritative account of the conflict that erupted after the EuroMaidan revolution in February 2014. Back in January, we flagged that as bad as the tech war between the U.S. and … The recent withdrawal of the US military from Syrian Rojava has left the Kurdish people – who long played the bloody role of the principal resistance against the Islamic State – vulnerable and betrayed. Election Year and impeachment politics will have a significant effect on the apolitical services, and may drive some unpredictable military operations. Our broad indicator tracking geopolitical risk events was elevated most of the summer and fall before moving lower in the last 30 days (Figure 1). This material represents an assessment of the market environment as of the date indicated; is subject to change; and is not intended to be a forecast of future events or a guarantee of future results. Iraq has far greater issues, in a burgeoning democracy it doesn’t play well to use lethal force against peaceful protests. In Ukraine, meanwhile, President Zelensky faces the prospect that even he may be unable to break Ukraine free of the oligarchs, potentially causing his support to wane. Many investors use ETFs for an efficient, flexible way to express a market view on a political event. Login. : Who Governs the US? To better understand the history and situation of Taipei and Beijing’s relationship, the following are suggested: China’s “One Belt, One Road” (OBOR) plan to revive the ancient trade routes of the Silk Road for the modern world continue despite economic uncertainty and debt-trap concerns amongst Beijing’s “partner” nations. Central Asia remains a mysterious region to many Western observers, where clan loyalties matter more than national ones, and where despots and technocrats have made entire nations into their fiefdoms. The international community also seems to be finally waking up to the situation in Xinjiang and the treatment of Muslim Uighurs, and protests in Hong Kong against mainland interference have raged since June and show no sign of stopping. For the coming year, understanding the extent of Iranian influence across the region will be key, as will be understanding the inner workings of the Iranian state. It’s a common question at this time of year, but it’s extremely difficult to answer. Despite this, former Algerian President Abdulaziz Bouteflika’s poor health and progressing age led to him stepping down in 2019, while King Salman of Saudi Arabia’s age and supposed dementia have led to the ambitious Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman taking the reins. This fantastic “ten commandments of political risk analysis” examines a history of geopolitical predictions that have been wildly off the mark. They did not occur out of nothing but out of geopolitical necessity. Picture credit: The Reading Room of the British Museum, by Riccardo Cambiass. The "rules-based international system proved successful beyond even the expectations of its architects. Well documented and researched, this book ensures that its reader will never look at the nightly news the same way again. While Bolsonaro himself – well known for his dislike of compromise – is unlikely to change his government’s trajectory in its privatisation push, he will likely feel forced to slow the pace of reforms. Reports suggest that Pakistan may actually be more indebted to China than the IMF, meaning that it is eroding its sovereignty for the sake of survival. Brexit has also raised questions over Northern Ireland’s commitment to the United Kingdom, and as such the following are recommended reading to better understand secessionist risks across the continent: Economic, political, and cultural stresses have also given birth to multiple disruptive protest movements across Europe in 2019. Permeating throughout the book is the context of President Putin’s strategy to support the separatist movements in the Donbas while attempting to keep Ukraine’s potential allies distracted with internal issues. 2020 Location Event; November: November 21-22: G20, Saudi Arabia: G20 meeting: December: December 10: Euro area: European Central Bank meeting* December 16: U.S. Federal Reserve meeting: December 31: Europe: German EU presidency ends: The following books are highly recommended for deepening your understanding of Islam and its interaction with the geopolitics of the West: In many ways connected to the issue of immigration and globalisation, the region has continued to experience significant challenges surrounding the United Kingdom’s decision to depart from the European Union. Understanding Israel’s place in the geopolitical landscape of the Middle East will likely be highly important in 2020 as these developments continue, and the following are recommended reads: Moving north from the Gulf, the Levant is in a period of consolidation with the ground and air campaigns in Syria, and particularly Iraq, largely over. Contributor. Situation Reports - November 17, 2020 Ethiopia’s climate-sensitive economy, growing population, and inter-ethnic conflict make it a geopolitical time bomb primed to explode. On the other side of the continent, in the coastal states of Cote d’Ivoire, Ghana and Togo, governments have a more dynamic Islamist threat to consider. Allah’s Torch: A Report from Behind the Scenes in Asia’s War on Terror, Jihad in Paradise: Islam and Politics in Southeast Asia, Terrorist Rehabilitation and Community Engagement in Malaysia and Southeast Asia, Militant Islam in Southeast Asia: Crucible of Terror, The Accidental Guerrilla: Fighting Small Wars in the Midst of a Big One, Islam in Southeast Asia: Political, Social and Strategic Challenges for the 21st Century, India And Bay of Bengal Community: The Bimstec Experiment, The China-Pakistan Axis: Asia’s New Geopolitics, War at the Top of the World: The Struggle for Afghanistan, Kashmir and Tibet, Kashmir in Conflict: India, Pakistan and the Unending War, Pakistan at Seventy: A handbook on developments in economics, politics and society, Military, Inc.: Inside Pakistan’s Military Economy, Sri Lanka: The Struggle for Peace in the Aftermath of War, Bangladesh’s Road to Long-term Economic Prosperity: Risks and Challenges, Bangladesh: Politics, Economy and Civil Society, The Maldives: Islamic Republic, Tropical Autocracy, The Pakistan Paradox: Instability and Resilience, Women and the War on Boko Haram: Wives, Weapons, Witnesses, Searching for Boko Haram: A History of Violence in Central Africa, The Management of Savagery: How America’s National Security State Fueled the Rise of Al Qaeda, ISIS, and Donald Trump, Confronting Leviathan: Mozambique Since Independence, Anarchy in the South of Congo: Post-Civil War Rebellion, The Democratic Republic of Congo: Between Hope and Despair, Health in a Fragile State: Science, Sorcery, and Spirit in the Lower Congo, Geography of Trafficking: From Drug Smuggling to Modern-Day Slavery, Security at the Borders: Transnational Practices and Technologies in West Africa, American Grand Strategy in the Age of Trump, Devil’s Bargain: Steve Bannon, Donald Trump, and the Storming of the Presidency, Surrender is Not an Option: Defending America at the United Nations, Divided America: The Fracturing of a Nation, Tales of Two Americas: Stories of Inequality in a Divided Nation, Polarized: Making Sense of a Divided America, Everyday Revolutions: Horizontalism and Autonomy in Argentina, The Maduro Diet: How three-quarters of adults in Venezuela lost an average of 43 pounds in two years, Nemesis: One Man and the Battle for Rio’s Biggest Slum. Once upon a time, and once again, this region is home to the Great Game, no longer a term for the historians alone. To understand where Iraq is going you must understand where it has come from. What is 2020 likely to mean for the financial markets? These examples are powder kegs which could not only escalate at any moment, plunging the immediate area further into conflict, but could set off chain reactions that embroil the world in war. The following are the team’s recommendations of regionally-focused books worth reading to get ahead of the major events and geopolitical movements that we anticipate will shape 2020: Europe in 2019 has continued to experience the increasing stresses of demographic changes and immigration; an issue that has been leveraged heavily by the continent’s political right and continues to influence elections and referendums. The foll. Freedman charts the course of the conflict, from its turbulent beginnings of pressure on former President Yanukovych to turn away from Europe, to the failure of the Minsk peace process and how domestic politics developed, both in Ukraine and in Russia. As an independent publication, our writers are volunteers from within the professional geopolitical intelligence community, and referrals like this support our ability to create future content by funding server time and domain fees. Hence, if one wants to gain insights into Africa and Latin America, then this book will not be suitable. Whether this view is correct or not, the continuing use of SOF has raised their profile and, with a public driven to know more about them, have spawned a genre of books written about or even by Special Operators, with varying degrees of accuracy and quality. A weekly discussion of the geopolitical implications of current events in the Asia-Pacific, hosted by Ankit Panda from The Diplomat, with regular guests. There is no guarantee that any strategies discussed will be effective. how similar they are, are they converging or diverging etc. Similar to the cells operating in Mozambique, however, their capabilities are no realistic threat to central governance – even in the midst of an unpredictable Ebola outbreak in the east of the country. They foster inter-group hatred perhaps in ways that nothing else can; they change the course of wars. Despite this, 2020 will almost certainly see the group and its ideological offshoots continuing to pose risks globally. Although published in 2002, this book is as relevant today as it was then, especially in the age of post-truth politics and deliberate manipulation of the mass media. The book lays out the current situation where the developing world is fast catching up with the developed world, and how this may affect the near and medium-term future where the West may not be the undisputed leader of the world anymore. With the departure of the ever-resistant UK, Brussels is likely to continue towards building a more integrated European Army in 2020. As this list contains a staggering 210 books, it is worth considering Amazon’s Kindle “Unlimited” programme as a more cost-effective way to get through the reading list. That nations between Russia and the West have adapted to take advantage of their unique and precarious position is a stark reminder that the expansion of political freedoms in Europe has come with an unexpected cost, and potentially significant future problems. Manufacturing Consent: The Political Economy of the Mass Media (Edward S. Herman & Noam Chomsky). John Scott – Crime and Insurgency Analyst. India’s Spatial Imaginations of South Asia: Power, Commerce and Community (Shibashis Chatterjee). China's political and economic landings. The entire book also has the impact of globalisation in the Indian Subcontinent woven deeply into it. Many problems had been left to fester in the year since Mahdi took charge, and the next Prime Minister will need to tread incredibly carefully and heed warnings that the swamp from which ISIS grew has not been drained. The following reads are suggested in order to better understand the conditions that gave birth to the movement, the likely course of Islamic Extremism in 2020, and the strategies that will be employed to counter them: Libya remains tattered and in a state of turmoil, with rival governments competing for legitimacy while international powers remain divided over which factions to support. Generation Kill: Devil Dogs, Ice Man, Captain America, and the New Face of American War (Evan Wright). The Bank of Japan events shown are followed by the publication of the central bank’s outlook report. For its part, the United States’ regional engagement has appeared lacklustre at times, especially at the senior levels. Evan Wright brings the flair of Rolling Stone to his writing, painting vivid pictures of terrible scenes, difficult decisions, and the dichotomy of terrible leaders, great leaders, and an over-caffeinated driver. Khan avoids laboured narratives of China’s imperial past or framing Chinese policy as the actions of an aggressive revisionist state as other popular books on the subject sometimes do. While his intent may be to use his life story as anecdotes behind his simple rules to life, it is the stories that are more compelling. While the UAE has long been exploring Israeli arms purchases, and the two states have cautiously seen each other as potential security partners against a resurgent Iran since at least 2009, we are now witnessing increasing levels of diplomatic openness between Abu Dhabi and Tel Aviv. The Targeter: My Life in the CIA, Hunting Terrorists and Challenging the White House (Nada Bakos). It is possible that, as people on both sides become weary of the war, a real and lasting peace can be reached between Russia and Ukraine, but this all happens under the shadow of a quietly resurgent Islamic radicalism from Central Asia. A fund could suffer losses related to its derivative positions because of a possible lack of liquidity in the secondary market and as a result of unanticipated market movements, which losses are potentially unlimited. It takes an intersectional dive at various Egyptians of different social strata, while highlighting their everyday struggles with relationships, sexuality, and politics. Meanwhile, Bangladesh’s economy has become a bright spot, and all signs point to it continuing to do so. Carefully consider the Funds' investment objectives, risk factors, and charges and expenses before investing. Terror and Consent: The Wars for the Twenty-first Century (Philip Bobbitt). The former (since made into an excellent HBO television series) is a visceral, often darkly funny account of the USMC entering Iraq and conducting rapid combined arms manoeuvres. China-Taiwan relations remain tense, and many have questioned whether U.S. President Trump may seek to use the “Taiwan issue” as a dangerous button in his competition with China. Event has taken place Wednesday 13 February 2019. Beginning with Mao and the Jiangxi Soviet, when the PRC was more dream than reality, Khan gives a refreshing and balanced account of how China’s actions – confrontational and acquiescent, sometimes opaque but always pragmatic – have achieved their aim in a shifting international and domestic landscape and against a background of constant insecurity. Europe in 2019 has continued to experience the increasing stresses of demographic changes and immigration; an issue that has been leveraged heavily by the continent’s political right and continues to influence elections and referendums. The end of 2019 brought subdued geopolitical risk. Freedman’s unique perspective on this conflict sheds new light on a complex and globally-significant conflict, and challenges the idea of Putin both as geopolitical poker master and international puppet-master. One of the more concrete features of the strategy – the rejuvenation of security cooperation between the so-called “Quad” of the US, Japan, Australia and India – has its own issues as China’s economic influence provides plenty of reason for three of its members to feel conflicted. The freshly-re-elected Government in Maputo has bigger fish to fry, meanwhile, as it attempts to nip in the bud a burgeoning splinter movement from former RENAMO rebels in Sofala. With Brexit bringing the never-quite-went-away spectre of violence in Northern Ireland back into focus, getting to grips with this oft-misunderstood conflict is critical. Through the essays, the book looks at the age-old debate of realpolitik vs principle-based foreign policy as its main theme. This series of essays in six parts expertly explains legal issues that have arisen in the former Soviet republics. I can think of few better on-the-ground primers than Generation Kill and The Unravelling. Markets cannot ignore major geopolitical events Published Sun, Dec 22 2019 11:05 PM EST Updated Sun, Dec 22 2019 11:07 PM EST Dr. Michael Ivanovitch @msiglobal9 Over the past seven decades, the world has become much more peaceful, prosperous, and democratic than at any time in history," the Atlantic Council's Ash Jain and Matthew Kroenig wrote in a recent essay presented on the World Economic Forum's Geostrategy platform. Enter your email address to subscribe and receive notifications of new articles by email. In November 2016, American citizens first heard the term “hybrid warfare” in relation to Russia and the US presidential election. As such, the world looks different when viewed from the Kremlin, and what is irrational to the West is common sense in Moscow. Freedman’s unique perspective on this conflict sheds new light on a complex and globally-significant conflict, and challenges the idea of Putin both as geopolitical poker master and international puppet-master.